Suche nach Schlagworten '10397-4'

6 entries found on 1 pages. starting on record 1 ending on 6

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Title: Government deficits, wealth effects and the price level in an optimizing model
Abstract
This paper investigates the in inflationary effects of fscal policy in an optimizing general equilibrium monetary model with capital accumulation, exible prices and wealth effects. The model is calibrated to Euro Area quarterly data. Simulation results show that government defcits, high debt level and slow fiscal adjustment adversely affect price stability in the presence of an independent monetary authority adopting a monetary targeting regime. The mechanism through which fiscal policy affects the dynamics of the price level presents monetarist properties, since the price level is determined in the monetary market. The effects produced by fiscal expansions on price dynamics are due to the behavior of consumers, facing a positive probability of death and sharing the burden of fiscal adjustment with future generations. Fiscal variables are shown to influence the consumption plan of individuals and the demand for real money balances, thus affecting the equilibrium conditions in the money market where the price level is determined. [Barbara Annicchiarico]
Author: Annicchiarico, Barbara
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 285
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesFiscal PolicyPrice stabilityTheoryWealth effectPublic Debt
Subject: Economic and growth policiesTaxation. Fiscal policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: The credibility of the monetary policy "free lunch"
Abstract
Price level targeting has been proposed as an alternative to in?ation targeting that may confer bene?ts if a central bank sets policy under discretion, even if society's loss function is speci?ed in terms of in?ation (instead of price level) volatility. This paper demonstrates the sensitivity of this argument. If even a small portion of agents use a rule-of-thumb to form in?ation expectations, or does not fully understand the nature of the target, price level targeting may in fact impose costs on society rather than bene?ts. While rational expectations and perfect credibility are generally bene?cial with either a price level or an in?ation target, an in?ation target is more robust to alternative assumptions. These results suggest that caution should be exercised in considering a price level target as the basis for monetary policy, unless society has preferences speci?ed in terms of price level, rather than in?ation, volatility. [James Yetman]
Author: Yetman, James
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 284
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCredibilityInflation targetingPrice stabilityRational expectationsTheoryCentral Bank
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets
Title (other): the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations
Abstract
Announcing a quantitative objective for price developments has become a common practice in modern monetary policy making. While the specific features of such announced objectives vary across countries, a common rationale for this is to help anchoring inflation expectations. We use survey data on long-term inflation expectations in 15 industrial countries since the early nineties to investigate how well anchored are inflation expectations. We find that in all countries except Japan long-term inflation expectations are well anchored and, generally, increasingly so over the past decade. When comparing this evidence across types of announcements of the inflation objectives, we find that the specific features of announcements have no visible effect on the performance at anchoring inflation expectations. In particular, there does not seem to be evidence that the announcement of a quantitative objective in the form of a point or of a range for admissible inflation rates makes any appreciable difference. [Efrem Castelnuovo, Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari and Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela]
Author: Castelnuovo, Efrem | Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio | Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 273
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesMonetary PolicyInflation targetingInflation expectationsPrice stability
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Forecasting euro area inflation
Title (other): does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?
Abstract
Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECB's monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of subindices of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as opposed to forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various model selection procedures are employed to select models for the aggregate and the disaggregate components. The results indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months ahead. [Kirstin Hubrich]
Author: Hubrich, Kirstin
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 247
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionInflationConsumer price indexPrice stabilityForecastTime series analysis
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Maintaining price stability under free-floating
Title (other): a fearless way out of the corner?
Abstract
The behaviour of the exchange rate under a floating exchange rate regime for a small open economy with perfect capital mobility may appear like a managed float or even a firmer peg. We present a canonical new neo-classical synthesis open economy model where the central bank follows a strategy directed at maintaining price stability. It is shown that the behaviour of the exchange rate depends on the structure of the economy and on the nature of the relevant shocks. In the case of very open economies the exchange rate will look quasi-fixed in response to shocks stemming from the international capital markets. It is also shown that the joined endogeneity of the interest rate and the exchange rate has important implications for the empirical testing of uncovered interest rate parity. [Carsten Detken and Vítor Gaspar]
Author: Detken, Carsten | Gaspar, Vítor
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 241
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Flexible exchange rateMonetary targetCapital mobilitySmall open economyPrice stabilityTheoryCentral BankInterest Rate
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero
Abstract
This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We ?nd that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the U.S. over the 1980s and 1990s, the consequences of the zero bound are negligible for target in?ation rates as low as 2 percent. However, the effects of the constraint are non-linear with respect to the in?ation target and produce a quantitatively signi?cant deterioration of the performance of the economy with targets between 0 and 1 percent. The variability of output increases signi?cantly and that of in?ation also rises somewhat. Also, we show that the asymmetry of the policy ineffectiveness induced by the zero bound generates a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve. Output falls increasingly short of potential with lower in?ation targets. [Günter Coenen, Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland]
Author: Coenen, Günter | Orphanides, Athanasios | Wieland, Volker
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 231
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyInflation targetingLiquidity preferencePrice stabilityEstimationUnited StatesInterest Rate
Subject: Economic development. Economic growth
Countries Scheme: USA
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
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