Suche nach Schlagworten '19042-3'

8 entries found on 1 pages. starting on record 1 ending on 8

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Title: Forecasting euro area inflation
Title (other): does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?
Abstract
Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECB's monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of subindices of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as opposed to forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various model selection procedures are employed to select models for the aggregate and the disaggregate components. The results indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months ahead. [Kirstin Hubrich]
Author: Hubrich, Kirstin
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 247
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionInflationConsumer price indexPrice stabilityForecastTime series analysis
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes
Abstract
We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and institutional factors can explain this pattern. Our analysis indicates that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes in the budgetary position are mainly affected by the cycle, the need of convergence before EMU and by electoral cycles. [Rolf Strauch, Mark Hallerberg and Jürgen von Hagen]
Author: Strauch, Rolf | Hallerberg, Mark | Hagen, Jürgen von
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 307
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean stability pactForecastPublic BudgetingPublic Budget
Subject: European Communities and European Union in generalPublic finance. Taxation
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Modelling inflation in the euro area
Abstract
The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry and Mestre (2001) - and estimated versions of the (single equation) P* model and a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. The evidence from these comparisons does not invite decisive conclusions. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead forecasts. [Eilev S. Jansen]
Author: Jansen, Eilev S.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 322
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Labour costsInflation expectationsForecastTheoryImperfect competition
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthEmployment and unemployment
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Waste opportunities
Title (other): Past and future climate benefits from better municipal waste management in Europe
Abstract
Using a life-cycle perspective, this report analyses the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from municipal solid waste management in the EU, plus Norway and Switzerland. Three scenarios illustrate how waste management and associated GHG emissions might develop until 2020. [Author vide copyright]
Series Title: Europäische Umweltagentur - Report ; 2011,3
Author (Corp. Body): Europäische Umweltagentur | European Environment Agency
Publisher: Europäische Gemeinschaften / Amt für Amtliche Veröffentlichungen
Year: 2011
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: 1725-9177 | 978-92-9213-221-7 | TH-AL-11-003-EN-C
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Berichte, Studien
Keyword: Air pollutionDisposal siteForecastEUenvironmental policy
Subject: European Communities. European UnionWaste managementProtection of the environment
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Umweltagentur (http://www.eea.eu.int/)
Title: Forecasting Euro area industrial production using (mostly) business surveys data
Abstract
In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business cyclical indicators to be used as predictors for the industrial production in France and Germany; as far as Italy is concerned, forecasts are produced using a model that in the recent past proved to be able to produce accurate forecasts up to six months ahead. In order to derive quantitative predictors from the business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based on dynamic factors and unobserved components models. The resulting forecasts are accurate up to six steps ahead.[Giancarlo Bruno, Claudio Lupi]
Author: Bruno, Giancarlo | Lupi, Claudio ; 170803309
Series Title:ECFIN - Working papers ; 2003
Contributer: Istituto di Studi e Analisi Economica, Rom
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Berichte, Studien
Keyword: GermanyEU countriesEconomic developmentFranceIndustrial productionItalyForecastEconomic indicator
Macroeconomic performance
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthIndustrial economics
Countries Scheme: Germany. General ResourcesEurope. General ResourcesItalyFrance
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/)
Title: Business survey data: do they help in forecasting the macro economy?
Abstract
This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used both as a framework for dimension reduction in forecasting and as a procedure for filtering out unimportant idiosyncratic noise in the underlying survey data. In this way, it is possible to model a rather large number of noise-reduced survey variables in a parsimoniously parameterised vector autoregression (VAR). To assess the forecasting performance of the procedure, comparisons are made with VARs that either use the survey variables directly, are based on macro variables only, or use other popular summary indices of economic activity. A revised version of this paper has been published in the Journal of International Forecasting, No 21, 2000". [Author vide Copyright]
Author: Hansson, Jesper ; 171823133 | Jansson, Per | Löf, Mårten
Series Title:ECFIN - Working papers ; 2003
Contributer: Konjunkturinstitutet, Stockholm
Publisher: Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen
Year: 2003
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: 1100-7818
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Berichte, Studien
Keyword: EU countriesEconomic developmentForecastMacroeconomic performancemacroeconomicssurvey research
Subject: Economic development. Economic growth
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/)
Title: A monthly indicator of the business climate in the french service industry : applications of benchmarking techniques in
official statistics
Abstract
Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is provided by dynamic factor analysis. Indeed, it is flexible enough to deal with both multi frequency series and changes in frequencies. This model has a state-space representation and can be estimated by a Kalman filter. Alternative models have been explored and yield very similar indexes, which emphasizes the robustness of the Insee indicator.This index can be obtained at a disaggregated level and provides an economic outlook of the services sector. Thus, it confirms the resurgence of activity in the services sector in France since mid-2003. More precisely, the activity appeared to be rather bumpy in 2004 and tends to decelerate in the beginning of 2005. [Author vide Copyright]
Author: Cornec, Matthieu | Deperraz, Thierry
Series Title:ECFIN - Working papers ; 2005
Contributer: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Paris
Publisher: Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen
Year: 2005
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Berichte, Studien
Keyword: Service industryEU countriesEconomic developmentFranceForecastEconomic indicatorMacroeconomic performance
Subject: Economic development. Economic growth
Countries Scheme: Europe. General ResourcesFrance
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/)
Title: Options for future European electricity system operation
Author (Corp. Body): Ecorys Nederland BV
Contributer: DNV GL, Høvik | Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Energie | Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)
Publisher: Europäische Kommission / Amt für Veröffentlichungen, Luxemburg
Year: 2015
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: 978-92-79-45124-9
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Berichte, Studien
Keyword: Electric Utility IndustryForecast
Subject: Energy policy. Power generation
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Kommission (http://europa.eu)
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