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Title: Exchange rates and fundamentals
Abstract
Standard economic models hold that exchange rates are influenced by fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help predict changes in floating exchange rates - that is, exchange rates follow a random walk. We show that the data do exhibit a related link suggested by standard models - that the exchange rate helps predict fundamentals. We also show analytically that in a rational expectations present value model, an asset price manifests near random walk behavior if fundamentals are I(1) and the factor for discounting future fundamentals is near one. We suggest that this may apply to exchange rates. [Charles Engel ; Kenneth David West]
Author: Engel, Charles | West, Kenneth David
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 248
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: G-7 countriesMoney supplyMonetary PolicyAggregate ProductionInflation rateMacroeconomic effectRandom walkRational expectations
TheoryExchange rateInterest Rate
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: Global Resources
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Policy-induced energy technological innovation and finance for low-carbon economic growth
Author: Mercure, Jean-Francois | Knobloch, Florian | Pollitt, Hector
Contributer: Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen, Nimwegen | National Technical University of Athens | Trinomics B.V. | Cambridge Econometrics Limited, Cambridge
Publisher: Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Energie
Year: 2016
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: ENER/A4/2015-436/SER/S12.716128
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Berichte, Studien
Keyword: Energy technologyFinancingMacroeconomic effectEnvironmental DegradationEconomic Growth
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthEnergy policy. Power generationPollution control. Environmental technology
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Kommission (http://europa.eu)
Title: EU energy trends and macroeconomic performance
Author: Barker, Anthony | Billington, Sophie | Clark, Mory
Contributer: E Modelling | Cambridge Econometrics Limited, Cambridge
Publisher: Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Energie
Year: 2016
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: ENER/A4/2015-436/SER/S12.716128
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Berichte, Studien
Keyword: Energy marketMacroeconomic effect
Subject: EnergyEnergy policy. Power generation
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Kommission (http://europa.eu)
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