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Title: Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area
Abstract
Traditional Taylor rules, which are estimated using a level specification linking the short-term interest rate to inflation and the output gap, are unstable when estimated on euro area data and forecast poorly out of sample. We present an alternative reaction function which takes the non-stationarity of the data into account. The estimated interest rate rule is stable and forecasts well. In contrast to the traditional Taylor rule, we find a ignificant role for the long rate, which we argue reflects shifts in the public's perception of the long-run inflation objective. [Petra Gerlach-Kristen]
Author: Gerlach-Kristen, Petra
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 258
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionCointegrationTaylor ruleCentral BankTerm structure of interest rates
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules
Title (other): is interest rate smoothing important?
Abstract
In this paper we estimate simple Taylor rules paying particular attention to interest rate smoothing. Following English, Nelson, and Sack (2002), we employ a model in first differences to gain some insights into the presence and signifcance of the degree of partial adjustment as opposed to a serially correlated policy shock. Moreover, we estimate a nested model to take into account both interest rate smoothing and serially correlated deviations from various Taylor rates prescriptions. Our findings suggest that the lagged interest rate enters the Taylor rule in its own right, and may very well coexist with (usually omitted) variables that relate to asymmetric preferences on the output gap, or financial market indicators. Therefore, while we cannot exclude that serially correlated policy shocks may play a role in describing the federal funds rate path, our results significantly support the importance of the lagged interest rate in Taylor-type models. [Efrem Castelnuovo]
Author: Castelnuovo, Efrem
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 232
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyTaylor ruleUnited StatesCentral BankInterest Rate
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: USA
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
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