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82 entries found on 5 pages. starting on record 1 ending on 20

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Title: Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy
Abstract
This paper offers an alternative explanation for the behavior of postwar US inflation by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time-inconsistency due to Cukierman (2002). In the presence of asymmetric preferences, the monetary authorities end up generating a systematic inflation bias through the private sector expectations of a larger policy response in recessions than in booms. Reduced-form estimates of US monetary policy rules indicate that while the inflation target declines from the pre- to the post-Volcker regime, the average inflation bias, which is about one percent before 1979, tends to disappear over the last two decades. This result can be rationalized in terms of the preference on output stabilization, which is found to be large and asymmetric in the former but not in the latter period. [Paolo Surico]
Author: Surico, Paolo
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 291
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyInflation targetingAnti-inflation policyTheory of preferencesUnited StatesTime consistency
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthCurrency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: USA
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Title: On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy
Abstract
A number of authors have attemted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must be impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Given assumptions about the shock distribution of model 2, it is possible to find a distribution of sunspot shocks that drive model 1 such that the two model are observationally equivalent. [Andreas Beyer ; Roger E. A. Farmer]
Author: Beyer, Andreas | Farmer, Roger E. A.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 277
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Business CycleRational expectationsTheoryUnited States
Subject: Economic development. Economic growth
Countries Scheme: USA
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Title: Measuring contagion with a Bayesian, time-varying coefficient model
Abstract
To measure contagion empirically, we propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov ChainMonte Carlo methods. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from structural breaks. It can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work well using both simulated and actual data. [Matteo Ciccarelli ; Alessandro Rebucci]
Author: Ciccarelli, Matteo | Rebucci, Alessandro
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 263
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: HeteroscedasticityBusiness cycle transmissionMarkov processShockTheory
Subject: Economic development. Economic growth
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Title: Bond market inflation expectations and longer-term trends in broad monetary growth and inflation in industrial
countries, 1880 - 2001
Abstract
'Bond Market Inflation Expectation and Longer-term Trends in Broad Monetary Growth and Inflation in Industrial Countries, 1880-2001' by William G. Dewald, Professor of Economics Emeritus, Ohio State University and Former Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Annual data for thirteen countries revealed three long up trends and down trends in inflation that were matched by growth rates in M2 and nominal GDP but not real GDP in each country and cross-country averages. Inflationary expectations as estimated by bond rates less real growth trends indicated little inflation expectation until the 1960s. Central banks had credibility to keep inflation low even during wartime. It was lost as inflation rose in the 1970s and regained only as inflation fell subsequently. Although relationships with annual data were not as reliable as with ten-year averages, annual inflation was significantly related to annual M2 growth and inflationary expectations which should not be ignored in central bank decision making. [William G. Dewald]
Author: Dewald, William G.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 253
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Money stockIndustrialized countriesInflation expectationsBond MarketComparisonEconomic Growth
Subject: Economic and growth policiesEconomic development. Economic growthMoney. Financing
Countries Scheme: Global Resources
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Title: Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero
Abstract
This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We ?nd that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the U.S. over the 1980s and 1990s, the consequences of the zero bound are negligible for target in?ation rates as low as 2 percent. However, the effects of the constraint are non-linear with respect to the in?ation target and produce a quantitatively signi?cant deterioration of the performance of the economy with targets between 0 and 1 percent. The variability of output increases signi?cantly and that of in?ation also rises somewhat. Also, we show that the asymmetry of the policy ineffectiveness induced by the zero bound generates a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve. Output falls increasingly short of potential with lower in?ation targets. [Günter Coenen, Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland]
Author: Coenen, Günter | Orphanides, Athanasios | Wieland, Volker
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 231
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyInflation targetingLiquidity preferencePrice stabilityEstimationUnited StatesInterest Rate
Subject: Economic development. Economic growth
Countries Scheme: USA
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Title: Die Wirtschaftsaussichten 2002
Title (other): The economic outlook 2002 | Les perspectives économiques 2002
Abstract
The study analyses macroeconomic policy-making in the European Union and the role of the European Parliament in it. There are three parts to the study. The first is concerned with policy-making procedures. The second analyses the implementation of the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines (BEPGs) and the stability and convergence programmes (SCPs) of the member states. The approach followed in this part is a combination of sectoral (labour markets, product markets, financial services markets, entrepreneurship, knowledge-based economy) and country-specific analysis. The third part provides a review of economic and economic policy convergence up to the year 2003 on the basis of current forecasts. Policy recommendations for the BEPGs 2002 are included. [European Parliament]
Author: Begg, Iain | Le Cacheux, Jacques | Wessels, Wolfgang
Series Title:European Parliament - Working Papers ; ECON 129
Publisher: Europäische Union / Europäisches Parlament | European Union / European Parliament
Year: 2002
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: 92-823-1654-8 | 92-823-1655-6 | 92-823-1656-4 | PE 314.399
Language: en | de | fr
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: labor market trendprognosisstatisticseconomic development (on national level)economic growth
Subject: Economic development. Economic growth
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Title: Analyse und Vorhersehen von Wandel zur Unterstützung des sozioökonomischen Fortschritts : Vierjahresprogramm 2001-2004
Title (other): Analysing and anticipating change to support socio-economic progress : Four-year programme 2001-2004
Abstract
The Foundation's seventh four-year programme aims both to provide continuity, building on the expertise established over the past 25 years, and innovation, exploring new and emerging issues and addressing the societal changes and the continuing challenge to improve living and working conditions. [European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions]
Author (Corp. Body): Europäische Stiftung zur Verbesserung der Lebens und Arbeitsbedingungen | European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions
Publisher: Europäische Stiftung zur Verbesserung der Lebens und Arbeitsbedingungen | European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions
Year: 2000
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: 92-897-0056-4 | TJ-36-01-370-..-C
Language: en | de
Ressource: Einzelne Berichte, Studien
Keyword: working conditionsliving conditionssocial changesocioeconomic development
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthSocial structure. Social conditions. Social changeConditions of work
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Title: 11. CEIES-Seminar : EU-Konjunkturindikatoren: Ein neuer Bedarf muss gedeckt werden ; Libourne (Frankreich) 12. und 13.
Oktober 2000 ; Teil 1 - Die derzeitige Lage ; "EU-Konjunkturindikatoren - Ein neuer Bedarf muss gedeckt werden : Die
derzeitige Lage - Standpunkt der Produzenten (OECD)"
Title (other): 11th CEIES seminar : EU short-term economic indicators : meeting new needs ; Part 1 - Current situation ; "EU short-term
indicators - meeting new needs: Current situation - the producer's view (OECD)" | 11e seminaire du CEIES : Les
indicateurs conjoncturels de l'UE - satisfaire de nouveaux besoins ; Libourne (France) jeudi 12 et vendredi 13 octobre
2000 ; "Les indicateurs conjoncturels de l'UE - satisfaire de nouveaux besoins Situation actuelle - le point de vue du
producteur (OCDE)"
Author: Ward, Denis
Series Title:Eurostat - Working documents ; 2001,5
Contributer: Europäische Kommission / Statistisches Amt
Publisher: Amt für AmtlicheVeröffentlichungen
Year: 2001
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: KS-AN-01-005-EN-I
Language: en | de | fr
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: statisticsstatistical method
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthData collectionConferences. Seminars
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
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Title: 11. CEIES-Seminar : Die EU-Konjunkturindikatoren: Deckung des neu entstandenen Bedarfs ; Libourne (Frankreich)
Donnerstag und Freitag, den 12. und 13. Oktober 2000 ; Teil 1 - Die gegenwärtige Lage ; "Statistische Informationen
für die Konjunkturanalyse"
Title (other): 11th CEIES seminar EU short-term economic indicators: meeting new needs - Part 1 - Current situation - "Statistical
information for short-term economic analysis" | 11e Séminaire du CEIES : Indicateurs économiques conjoncturels de
L'UE: satisfaire de nouveaux besoins ; Libourne (France) Jeudi 12 et vendredi 13 octobre 2000 ; Partie 1 - Situation
actuelle ; "L'information statistique servant à l'analyse conjoncturelle"
Author: De Cindio, Giovanni
Series Title:Eurostat - Working documents ; 2001,6
Contributer: Europäische Kommission / Statistisches Amt
Publisher: Europäische Gemeinschaften / Amt für AmtlicheVeröffentlichungen
Year: 2001
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: KS-AN-01-006-EN-I
Language: en | de | fr
Ressource: Statistiken | Einzelne Vorträge und Tagungsbeiträge
Keyword: statisticsstatistical method
Subject: Economic analysis and researchEconomic development. Economic growthData collectionConferences. Seminars
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
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Title: 11. CEIES-Seminar : EU-Konjunkturindikatoren: Ein neuer Bedarf muss gedeckt werden ; Libourne (Frankreich) 12. & 13.
Oktober 2000 ; Teil 1 - Die derzeitige Lage ; "Für eine intensivere Zusammenarbeit zwischen den Produzenten von
Konjunkturdaten"
Title (other): 11th CEIES seminar EU short-term economic indicators: meeting new needs ; Part 1 - Current situation ; "Greater
cooperation between producers of economic data" | 11th CEIES seminar EU short-term economic indicators: meeting new
needs ; Part 1 - Current situation ; "Pour une plus grande coopération entre les producteurs de données
conjoncturelles"
Author: Devilliers, Michel
Series Title:Eurostat - Working documents ; 2001,7
Contributer: Europäische Kommission / Statistisches Amt
Publisher: Europäische Gemeinschaften / Amt für AmtlicheVeröffentlichungen
Year: 2001
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: KS-AN-01-007-EN-I
Language: en | de | fr
Ressource: Statistiken | Einzelne Vorträge und Tagungsbeiträge
Keyword: statisticsstatistical method
Subject: Economics and economic researchEconomic development. Economic growthData collectionConferences. Seminars
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
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Title: 11. CEIES-Seminar : EU-Konjunkturindikatoren: Ein neuer Bedarf muss gedeckt werden ; Libourne (Frankreich) 12. und 13.
Oktober 2000 ; Teil 1 - Die derzeitige Lage ; "Das gemeinsame harmonisierte EU-Programm für Konjunkturumfragen bei
Unternehmern und Verbrauchern"
Title (other): 11th CEIES seminar EU short-term economic indicators: meeting new needs : Part 1 - Current situation - "Joint harmonized
EU programme of business and consumer surveys" | 11e Séminaire du CEIES : Indicateurs économiques conjoncturels de
L'UE: satisfaire de nouveaux besoins ; Libourne (France) Jeudi 12 et vendredi 13 octobre 2000 ; Première partie -
Situation actuelle ; "Programme commun harmonisé des enquêtes de conjoncture dans l'Union européenne"
Author: Klein, F.-J.
Series Title:Eurostat - Working documents ; 2001,9
Contributer: Europäische Kommission / Statistisches Amt
Publisher: Europäische Gemeinschaften / Amt für AmtlicheVeröffentlichungen
Year: 2001
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: KS-AN-01-009-EN-I
Language: en | de | fr
Ressource: Statistiken | Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: statisticsstatistical method
Subject: Economics and economic researchEconomic development. Economic growthData collectionConferences. Seminars
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
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Title: 11. CEIES-Seminar : Konjunkturindikatoren der EU: Neuen Anforderungen gerecht werden ; Libourne (Frankreich) Donnerstag,
den 12., und Freitag, den 13. Oktober 2000 ; Teil 1: Gegenwärtige Lage ; "Kurzbericht über die Verwendung und
Qualität von Konjunkturindikatoren aus norwegischer Sicht"
Title (other): 11th CEIES seminar : EU short-term economic indicators: meeting new needs ; Part 1 ? Current situation ; "A short note
on the use and quality of short-term economic indicators ? a Norwegian perspective" | 11e Séminaire du CEIES :
Indicateurs conjoncturels de L'UE: Satisfaire de nouveaux besoins : Libourne (France) Jeudi 12 et vendredi 13 octobre
2000 ; Première partie: Situation actuelle "Bref exposé sur l'utilisation et la qualité des indicateurs conjoncturels
dans une perspective norvégienne"
Author: Moum, K.
Series Title:Eurostat - Working documents ; 2001,3
Contributer: Europäische Kommission / Statistisches Amt
Publisher: Europäische Gemeinschaften / Amt für AmtlicheVeröffentlichungen
Year: 2001
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: KS-AN-01-003-EN-I
Language: en | de | fr
Ressource: Statistiken | Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: statisticsstatistical method
Subject: Economics and economic researchEconomic development. Economic growthData collectionConferences. Seminars
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
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Title: 11. CEIES-Seminar : EU-Konjunkturindikatoren: Ein neuer Bedarf muss gedeckt werden ; Libourne (Frankreich) 12. & 13.
Oktober 2000 ; Teil 1 - Die derzeitige Lage ; "Europäische Konjunkturstatistiken: Der Stand der Technik"
Title (other): 11th CEIES seminar : EU short-term economic indicators: meeting new needs ; Part 1 - Current situation ; "European
short-term statistics: the state of the art" | 11e Séminaire du CEIES : Indicateurs conjoncturels de L'UE: satisfaire
de nouveaux besoins ; Libourne (France) Jeudi 12 et vendredi 13 octobre 2000 ; Partie 3 - Satisfaire de nouveaux besoins
; "Les statistiques conjoncturelles européennes: nouvelles approches"
Author: Mazzi, Gian Luigi
Series Title:Eurostat - Working documents ; 2001,12
Contributer: Europäische Kommission / Statistisches Amt
Publisher: Europäische Gemeinschaften / Amt für AmtlicheVeröffentlichungen
Year: 2001
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: KS-AN-01-012-EN-I
Language: en | de | fr
Ressource: Statistiken | Einzelne Vorträge und Tagungsbeiträge
Keyword: statisticsstatistical method
Subject: Economics and economic researchEconomic development. Economic growthData collectionConferences. Seminars
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
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Title: 11. CEIES-Seminar : EU-Konjunkturindikatoren: Ein neuer Bedarf muss gedeckt werden ; Der Standpunkt der Nutzer
Title (other): 11th CEIES seminar EU short-term economic indicators: meeting new needs ? Part 1 ? Current situation ? 'The users' view'
| 11ème Séminaire du CEIES : Les Indicateurs de L'UE: satisfaire les nouveaux besoins ; Libourne (France) Jeudi 12 et
vendredi 13 octobre 2000 ; Partie 1 ? Situation actuelle ; "Les indicateurs économiques conjoncturels de l?UE:
satisfaire de nouveaux besoins"
Author: McCoy, Daniel
Series Title:Eurostat - Working documents ; 2001,13
Contributer: Europäische Kommission / Statistisches Amt
Publisher: Europäische Gemeinschaften / Amt für AmtlicheVeröffentlichungen
Year: 2001
ISBN / ISSN / Kat.Nr: KS-AN-01-013-EN-I
Language: en | de | fr
Ressource: Statistiken | Einzelne Vorträge und Tagungsbeiträge
Keyword: statisticsstatistical method
Subject: Economics and economic researchEconomic development. Economic growthData collectionConferences. Seminars
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
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Title: Inflation and relative price asymmetry
Abstract
By placing store-level price data into bivariate Structural VAR models of inflation and relative price asymmetry, this study evaluates the quantitative importance of idiosyncratic pricing shocks in short-run aggregate price change dynamics. Robustly to alternative definitions of the relative price, identification schemes dictated by two-sided (S,s) pricing theory and measures of asymmetry in the relative price distribution, idiosyncratic shocks explain about 25 to 30 percent of the forecast error variance in inflation at the 12-month horizon. While the contemporaneous correlation between inflation and relative price asymmetry is positive, idiosyncratic shocks lead to a substantial build-up in inflation only after two to five months following the initial disturbance. [Attila Ratfai]
Author: Ratfai, Attila
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 301
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: InflationRelative pricesShockTheoryHungaryVAR model
Subject: Economic development. Economic growth
Countries Scheme: Hungary
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Title: Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics
Abstract
In order to explain the joint fluctuations of output, inflation and the labor market, this paper first develops a general equilibrium model that integrates a theory of equilibrium unemployment into a monetary model with nominal price rigidities. Then, it estimates a set of structural parameters characterizing the dynamics of the labor market using an application of the minimum distance estimation. The estimated model can explain the cyclical behavior of employment, hours per worker, job creation and job destruction conditional on a shock to monetary policy. Moreover, allowing for variation of the labor input at the extensive margin leads to a significantly lower elasticity of marginal costs with respect to output. This helps to explain the sluggishness of inflation and the persistence of output after a monetary policy shock. The ability of the model to account for the joint dynamics of output and inflation rely on its ability to explain the dynamics in the labor market. [Antonella Trigari]
Author: Trigari, Antonella
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 304
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: General equilibriumMonetary PolicyInflationBusiness CyclePrice stickinessShockTheoryTheory of unemployment
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthBusiness cyclesCurrency. Monetary policyEmployment and unemployment
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Title: A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting
Abstract
In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core in- flation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the properties that an 'ideal' core inflation process should show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures. [Claudio Morana]
Author: Morana, Claudio
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 305
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: European Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyInflationCointegrationMarkov processTheory
Subject: European Communities. European UnionEconomic development. Economic growth
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Title: A markup model of inflation for the euro area
Abstract
Equilibrium correction models of the price level are often used to model inflation. Such models assume that the long-run markup of prices over costs is fixed, but this may not be true for the Euro area economy, which has undergone major structural reforms over the last 25 years. We allow for shifts in the markup factor through estimating an equation that includes a timevarying intercept. The model fits the data better than a linear alternative, and suggests that a reduction in the price-cost markup contributed to disinflation in the Euro area during the 1980s. [Christopher Bowdler and Eilev S. Jansen]
Author: Bowdler, Christopher | Jansen, Eilev S.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 306
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Economic dynamicsEU countriesInflationCointegrationTheory
Subject: European Communities and European Union in generalEconomic development. Economic growth
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Title: Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles
Abstract
This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panel VAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences. We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role. We detect differences across business cycle phases but, apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s, find little evidence of major structural changes. We also find no evidence of the existence of an Euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s. [Fabio Canova, Matteo Ciccarelli and Eva Ortega]
Author: Canova, Fabio | Ciccarelli, Matteo | Ortega, Eva
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 312
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: G-7 countriesBusiness cycle transmission
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthBusiness cycles
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Title: Fiscal policy and inflation volatility
Abstract
Among the harmful effects of inflation, the negative consequences of inflation volatility are of particular concern. These include higher risk premia, hedging costs and unforeseen redistribution of wealth. This paper presents panel estimations for a sample of OECD countries which suggest that activist fiscal policies may have an important impact on CPI inflation volatility. Major results are robust for unconditional and conditional inflation volatility, the latter derived from country-specific GARCH models, and across different data requencies, time periods and econometric methodologies. From a policy perspective, these results point to the possibility of further destabilising effects of discretionary fiscal policies, in addition to their potential to destabilise output. [Philipp C. Rother]
Author: Rother, Philipp C.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 317
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: ARCH modelEU countriesFiscal PolicyInflationVolatility
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthTaxation. Fiscal policy
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