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Title: ECB - Working paper series
Title (other): European Central Bank - Working paper series
Abstract
The ECB Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate economic research on issues that are relevant to the various tasks and functions of the ECB. The Series invites submissions of research work by ECB staff and visitors. Papers by researchers not affiliated with the ECB may also be considered for publication to the extent that they have been produced in the context of ECB-led research initiatives and/or presented at research conferences/workshops organised by the ECB. The working papers published in the Series constitute work in progress circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comments. Views expressed represent exclusively the authors' own opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. [according to former site editors' information]
Series Title: European Central Bank
Author (Corp. Body): European Central Bank
Year: unknown
Language: en
Ressource: Verzeichnisse von Arbeitspapier- und Preprintreihen
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
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Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Source: European Central Bank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: How does the ECB target inflation?
Abstract
The announced primary objective of the European Central Bank is price stability. While no restrictive reference is given to how the goal should be reached, such a mandate can be thought as a concern to stabilize some relevant macroeconomic aggregates. Accordingly, we frame ECB monetary policy in a general set up that allows policy makers to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output gaps. The empirical analysis on aggregated Euro area data indicates that ECB monetary policy can be characterized by a nonlinear policy rule. While the objective of price stability is symmetric, the one on real activity is not in that output contractions require larger policy responses. Moreover, the actual Euro interest rate highly commoves with the counterfactual rate that the Bundesbank would have followed if charged to set policy rates for the Euro area. [Paolo Surico]
Author: Surico, Paolo
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 229
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Monetary policy shocks
Title (other): a nonfundamental look at the data
Abstract
VAR studies of the effects of monetary policy on output suggest that a contractionary impulse results in a drawn-out, hump-shaped response of output. Standard structural economic models are generally not able to reproduce such a response. In this paper I look at nonfundamental representations that are observationally equivalent to a VAR. I find that the quantitative effect of a monetary policy shock on output might be much smaller and much more short-lived than the VAR studies suggest. I conclude that the apparent discrepancy between the VAR findings and standard structural models may be spurious and that the general tendency to append non-structural, ad hoc features to structural models should be questioned. [Matt Klaeffling]
Author: Klaeffling, Matt
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 228
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment
Abstract
We study the effects on the optimal monetary policy design problem of allowing for deviations from the law of one price in import goods prices. We reach three basic results. First, incomplete pass-through renders the analysis of monetary policy of an open economy fundamentally different from the one of a closed economy, unlike canonical models with perfect pass-through which emphasize a type of isomorphism. Second, and in response to efficient productivity shocks, incomplete pass-through has the effect of generating endogenously a short-run tradeoff between the stabilization of inflation and of the output gap. Third, in studying the optimal program under commitment relative to discretion, we show that the former entails a smoothing of the deviations from the law of one price, in stark contrast with the established empirical evidence. In addition, an optimal commitment policy always requires, relative to discretion, more stable nominal and real exchange rates. [Tommaso Monacelli]
Author: Monacelli, Tommaso
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 227
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: The central bank as a risk manager
Title (other): quantifying and forecasting inflation risks
Abstract
In deciding the monetary policy stance, central bankers need to evaluate carefully the risks the current economic situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to construct genuine real time forecasts of year-on-year risks that may be used in policy-making. We demonstrate the usefulness of these risk forecasts in understanding the Fed's decision to tighten monetary policy in 1984, 1988, and 1994. Second, we forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have increased, we find that, as of September 2002, with the exception of Japan there is no evidence of substantial deflation risks. We also put the estimates of deflation risk for the United States, Germany and Japan into historical perspective. We find that only for Japan there is evidence of deflation risks that are unusually high by historical standards. [Lutz Kilian, Simone Manganelli]
Author: Kilian, Lutz | Manganelli, Simone
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 226
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Productivity and the ('synthetic') euro-dollar exchange rate
Abstract
This paper analyses the impact of productivity developments in the United States and the euro area on the euro-dollar exchange rate. The paper presents a new measure of relative average labour productivity (ALP), which does not suffer from the biases implicit in readily available relative ALP data. Importantly, the patterns of these series differ widely. Employing the Johansen cointegration framework, four Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate models are estimated using four different productivity proxies. Our results indicate that the extent to which productivity can explain the euro depreciation varies with the productivity proxy used: readily available measures explain most, our new, preferred measure least. If foreign exchange traders used the former to assess productivity developments, this might thus have contributed to the weakness of the euro in 2000/2001. In all models, however, productivity can explain only a fraction of the actual euro depreciation experienced in 1999/2000. [Bernd Schnatz, Focco Vijselaar, Chiara Osbat]
Author: Schnatz, Bernd | Vijselaar, Focco | Osbat, Chiara
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 225
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: The rise of the yen vis--vis the ("synthetic") euro
Title (other): is it supported by economic fundamentals?
Abstract
This paper examines the long-run determinants of the euro-yen exchange rate. Using cointegration analysis, we find a consistent and significant relationship between the real exchange rate and relative productivity, the net foreign asset position, relative government spending and terms of trade shocks, as well as a fairly rapid mean reversion of the exchange rate to its equilibrium. The "equilibrium" rate tracks the trends in the actual exchange rate quite well, accounting for a large part of the yen appreciation from the mid-1970s to 2001. Our findings suggest that the euro appreciation against the yen in 2001 represented an equilibrium correction of its previous depreciation. Moreover, the width of the error bands highlights the difficulties arising when attempting to determine the precise equilibrium value of a currency. [Chiara Osbat, Rasmus Rüffer, Bernd Schnatz]
Author: Osbat, Chiara | Rüffer, Rasmus | Schnatz, Bernd
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 224
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge
Abstract
We study optimal nominal demand policy in an economy with monopolistic competition and flexible prices when firms have imperfect common knowledge about the shocks hitting the economy. Parametrizing firms' information imperfections by a (Shannon) capacity parameter that constrains the amount of information flowing to each firm, we study how policy that minimizes a quadratic objective in output and prices depends on this parameter. When price setting decisions of firms are strategic complements, for a large range of capacity values optimal policy nominally accommodates mark-up shocks in the short-run. This finding is robust to the policy maker observing shocks imperfectly or being uncertain about firms' capacity parameter. With persistent mark-up shocks accommodation may increase in the medium term, but decreases in the long-run thereby generating a hump-shaped price response and a slow reduction in output. Instead, when prices are strategic substitutes, policy tends to react restrictively to mark-up shocks. However, rational expectations equilibria may then not exist with small amounts of imperfect common knowledge. [Klaus Adam]
Author: Adam, Klaus
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 223
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States
Abstract
We estimate a forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the U.S. using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters as proxy for expected inflation. We obtain significant and plausible estimates for the structural parameters of the NKPC (the discount factor and the share of firms adjusting prices) independent from whether output or unit labor costs are used as a measure of marginal costs. Survey expectations suggest that the usual identification of expectations exploiting orthogonality of forecast errors with respect to output is severely distorted, which explains why the NKPC estimated with survey data performs much better than under the assumption of rational expectations. We also find that lagged inflation enters the price equation significantly, even when controlling for its ability to predict expectations. This suggests a role for lagged inflation beyond that of capturing non-rationalities in expectations. When estimating a Phillips curve where lagged inflation enters due to price indexation by non-reoptimizing firms, we find that rejection of the coefficient restrictions depends on the measure of marginal costs used. [Klaus Adam, Mario Padula]
Author: Adam, Klaus | Padula, Mario
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 222
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Estimating risk premia in money market rates
Abstract
This paper empirically tests the expectations hypothesis on both daily EONIA swap rates and monthly EURIBOR rates extended backwards with German LIBOR rates. In addition, we quantify the size of the risk premia in the money market at maturities of one, three, six and nine months. Using implied forward and spot rates in a cointegrated VAR model, we find that the data support the expectations hypothesis in the euro area and in Germany prior to 1999. We find that risk premia are relatively limited at the shorter maturities but more significant at maturities of six and nine months. Furthermore, the results on LIBOR/EURIBOR rates tentatively indicate a downward shift in the structure of the risk premia after the introduction of the euro. [Alain Durré, Snorre Evjen, Rasmus Pilegaard]
Author: Durré, Alain | Evjen, Snorre | Pilegaard, Rasmus
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 221
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: The allocation of competencies in an international union
Title (other): a positive analysis
Abstract
This paper presents a positive theory of centralization of political decisions in an international union. My central claim is that lobbies play a role in determining the assignment of competencies to the union because their power of influence can increase or decrease under centralization. I show that in this setting a misallocation of prerogatives between the international union and national governments can be an outcome, both leading to excessive decentralization and/or non necessary centralization. This result reconciles a partial inconsistency that recent studies pointed out between the allocation of prerogatives in the EU and normative criteria, as laid out in the theoretical literature. [Michele Ruta]
Author: Ruta, Michele
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 220
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Extra-euro area manufacturing import prices and exchange rate pass-through
Abstract
This paper uses a model of import prices whereby exporters to the euro area set export prices partly as a mark-up on their production costs (i.e., the degree of exchange rate pass-through) and partly in line with euro area producer prices (i.e., pricing-to-market). Using both time series and panel estimation techniques, the econometric results suggest that the pass through of changes in the effective exchange rate of the euro to the price of extra-euro area imports of manufactures is around 50% - 70%, while pricing-to-market has an estimated weight of between 50% - 30%. We also find some evidence of differences across import suppliers, with EU member states who are not part of the euro area assigning a relatively larger weight to pricing-to-market, while euro area imports from the United States seem to be characterised by a relatively higher degree of exchange rate pass-through. [Robert Anderton]
Author: Anderton, Robert
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 219
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan
Abstract
In this paper we study the role of the exchange rate in conducting monetary policy in an economy with near-zero nominal interest rates as experienced in Japan since the mid-1990s. Our analysis is based on an estimated model of Japan, the United States and the euro area with rational expectations and nominal rigidities. First, we provide a quantitative analysis of the impact of the zero bound on the effectiveness of interest rate policy in Japan in terms of stabilizing output and inflation. Then we evaluate three concrete proposals that focus on depreciation of the currency as a way to ameliorate the effect of the zero bound and evade a potential liquidity trap. Finally, we investigate the international consequences of these proposals. [Günter Coenen, Volker Wieland]
Author: Coenen, Günter | Wieland, Volker
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 218
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: The role of product market regulations in the process of structural change
Abstract
The sectoral allocation of labor differs considerably across developed economies, even in the presence of similar patterns of structural change. A general equilibrium model that captures the stylized facts of structural change is presented. In this framework, product market regulations raise barriers to entry that hinder the development of sectors with income elastic demand such as service industries. Thus, the paper suggests that differences in the regulations of product markets might help explaining cross-country differences in the sectoral allocation of employment. Cross-country evidence discussed in the paper shows that this proposition is supported by the data for a sample of OECD countries. Additionally, the model shows that higher service prices and rents in regulated economies reduce labor supply, providing a rationale for the negative association between product market regulations and the employment rate previously found in the literature. [Julián Messina]
Author: Messina, Julián
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 217
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union
Title (other): a tentative assessment
Abstract
The enlargement of the European monetary union to include the accession countries (ACs) will not lead to higher average inflation in the enlarged euro area, but only to inflation redistribution across countries if continuity of the monetary policy framework is preserved. In the short term, unanticipated shocks to the real exchange rate may instead affect aggregate inflation if member countries' economic structure differs. When comparing welfare, inflation and output stabilisation, we find that the size, differences in economic structure and the variance-covariance matrix of supply and real exchange rate shocks play a key role. The numerical results indicate that the implications for the euro area are significant only if we assume a strong real exchange rate appreciation and if ACs are weighted in terms of purchasing power parity standards. In the event of real exchange rate or country-specific supply shocks in ACs, the consequences would be limited for both the current and the enlarged euro area, but sizeable for ACs themselves. [Michele Ca' Zorzi, Roberto A. De Santis]
Author: Ca' Zorzi, Michele | De Santis, Roberto A.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 216
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Central and Eastern European countries
Abstract
This paper documents the modes of organization of the budget process in ten CEEC and examines the relationship between these institutional settings and fiscal performance. Using detailed information on the budget institutions in these countries, the national budget processes are classified according to their coordination and conflict resolution properties. Empirical results show that budget procedures that are conducive to reducing collective action problems have been associated with more fiscal discipline. [Holger Gleich]
Author: Gleich, Holger
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 215
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: On the selection of forecasting models
Abstract
It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square error (PMSE) in simulated ou-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of these methods in terms of their ability to minimize the true out-of-sample PMSE, allowing for possible misspecification of the forecast models under consideration. We first study a covariance stationary environment. We show that under suitable conditions the IC method will be consistent for the best approximating models among the candidate models. In contrast, under standard assumptions the SOOS method will select overparameterized models with positive probability, resulting in excessive finite-sample PMSEs. We also show that in the presence of unmodelled structural change both methods will be inadmissible in the sense that they may select a model with strictly higher PMSE than the best approximating models among the candidate models. [Atsushi Inoue, Lutz Kilian]
Author: Inoue, Atsushi | Kilian, Lutz
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 214
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves
Abstract
This paper examines the issue of the impact of aggregation in the empirical analysis of euro area labour markets. A Phillips Curve describing the adjustment of unit labour costs is estimated at the national and aggregate level for the 5 largest euro area countries. Potential sources of aggregation bias are investigated ­ such as differences in parameter coefficients and a lack of correlation in the independent variables across countries ­ as well as the potentially offsetting statistical averaging effect. Finally the out-of-sample forecasting performance of both approaches is evaluated. The results point to some limited advantages of analysing wage developments at the national rather than at the area-wide level. The paper concludes that if major advantages in undertaking national analysis do exist, they are likely to arise from the ability to develop country-specific structures for the Phillips Curves and not from aggregation biases that emerge when a common structure is used. [Silvia Fabiani, Julian Morgan]
Author: Fabiani, Silvia | Morgan, Julian
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 213
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements
Abstract
In this paper we study risk-neutral densities (RNDs) for the German stock market. The use of option prices allows us to quantify the risk-neutral probabilities of various levels of the DAX index. For the period from December 1995 to November 2001, we implement the mixture of log-normals model and a volatility-smoothing method. We discuss the time series behaviour of the implied PDFs and we examine the relations between the moments and observable factors such as macroeconomic variables, the US stock markets and credit risk. We find that the risk-neutral densities exhibit pronounced negative skewness. Our second main observation is a significant spillover of volatility, as the implied volatility and kurtosis of the DAX RND are mostly driven by the volatility of US stock prices. [Ernst Glatzer, Martin Scheicher]
Author: Glatzer, Ernst | Scheicher, Martin
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 212
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Self-control and savings
Abstract
We reconsider the well-established paradigm of a rational individual's choice of a consumption schedule, building on the idea that human beings devote resources to withstand their desire for immediate consumption, i.e. to become more patient, thereby making less remote the pleasure derived from deferred consumption. We construct an infinite-horizon model of a small open economy, in which individuals can accumulate a stock of personal capital that reduces the discount on future consumption. Personal capital captures the effect of a conumer's past experience and choices on his future utilities. Our main results are: i) when individuals are heterogenous with respect to ability to become patient all individuals exhibit the same rate of time preference in the long run; ii) effort is rewarded in the long run to the extent that individuals who need to make more effort to become patient are wealthier and enjoy a higher level of utility bin the steady state. The latter result stems from the complementarity between personal capital and deferred consumption. [Philippe Michel, Jean-Pierre Vidal]
Author: Michel, Philippe | Vidal, Jean-Pierre
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 211
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
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