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422 entries found on 22 pages. starting on record 1 ending on 20

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Title: Information acquisition and decision making in committees
Title (other): A survey
Abstract
This is a survey on the recent game theoretic literature on committee decision making. We consider theoretical work on the role of (i) strategic voting, (ii) costly information acquisition, (iii) conflicting interests, and (iv) communication in committees. Moreover, we review recent experimental evidence on these issues. Our analysis focuses on the optimal size, composition, and decision rules of committees. We discuss implications for the design of monetary policy committees. [Kerstin Gerling, Hans Peter Grüner, Alexandra Kiel and Elisabeth Schulte]
Table of Contents
Abstract
Non-technical summary
1 Introduction
2 Strategic voting versus naive voting
2.1 Sincere voting
2.2 Abstention
2.3 Unanimity
3 Incentives for information acquisition
3.1 Large committees
3.2 The case for small committees
3.3 Relation to the delegating authority
4 Conflicting interests
4.1 Caring differently about mistakes
4.2 Binary decisions and continuous information
4.3 Committee size with conflicting preferences
4.4 Decision rules with interdependent preferences
5 Communication
5.1 Irrelevance of voting rules
5.2 Imperfect aggregation and incentives
5.3 Communication and conflicting interests
6 Decision skills
7 Experimental results
8 Summary of theoretical results
8.1 How large should a committee be?
8.2 Who should be in a committee?
8.3 What is the optimal decision rule?
9 Implications for Monetary Policy Committees
9.1 Why monetary policy committees?
9.2 The optimal size of a committee
9.3 The voting rule
9.4 Who should be in a committee?
9.5 Relation to the outside
References
Author: Gerling, Kerstin | Grüner, Hans Peter | Kiel, Alexandra | Schulte, Elisabeth
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 256
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Voting ruleMonetary PolicyGroup decisionTheory
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: No country specification
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Title: Consumer inflation expectations in Poland
Abstract
Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the transmission of monetary policy impulses and their impact on the real and nominal sectors of the economy bear a close relationship to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be quantified with the use of probability or regression methods. This paper presents the results of two versions of the probability method, implemented in order to estimate numerical measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations, based on the monthly Ipsos-Demoskop survey. In addition, the unbiasedness and macroeconomic efficiency of Polish consumer inflation expectations are tested, as are the way in which these are formed. The pattern of responses to the survey question and quantified measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations are also compared with the respective findings for the euro area. [Tomasz £yziak]
Author: £yziak, Tomasz
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 287
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyInflation expectationsPolandConsumersCentral Bankmonetary policyinflationPoland
consumercentral bank
Subject: Economic conditionsCurrency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: Poland
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Title: Implementing optimal control in cointegrated I(1) structural VAR models
Abstract
This paper examines the feasibility of implementing Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) Control in structural cointegrated VAR models and sheds some light on the two major problems generated by such implementation. The first aspect to be taken into account is the effect of the presence of unit roots in the system on the policymaker's ability to control it, partially or thoroughly. Different control techniques are proposed according to the extent to which the policymaker can exercise his control on the overall dynamics of the economy, i.e. depending on whether he/she can stabilize the whole system, only part of it or none of it. The second issue involves the structural form of the model. It will be shown in this paper that, in general, a system's features will change when implementing a new control rule. In particular, a controlled system will generally not retain features that should be intrinsecally invariant to policy changes (e.g., neutrality of money in the long-run). [Francesca V. Monti]
Author: Monti, Francesca V.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 288
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCointegrationControl theoryTheoryVAR model
Subject: Economic and growth policies
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Title: Monetary and fiscal interactions in open economies
Abstract
A two-country sticky-price model is used to analyse the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy. The role of an 'activist' fiscal policy as a stabilisation tool is considered and a measure of the welfare gains from international fiscal policy cooperation is derived. It is found that welfare gains from fiscal cooperation do exist provided monetary policy is set cooperatively. There are also welfare gains from fiscal policy cooperation in a monetary union. However, it is found that a 'non-activist' fiscal policy can be better than non-cooperative fiscal policy when the international correlation of shocks is strongly negative. And non-cooperative fiscal policy can be better than cooperative fiscal policy if monetary policy is not set cooperatively. [Giovanni Lombardo ; Alan Sutherland]
Author: Lombardo, Giovanni | Sutherland, Alan
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 289
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Fiscal PolicyMonetary PolicyOpen economyTheoryEconomic policy target
Subject: Currency. Monetary policyFinancing. Private finance. Financial policy
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Title: Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design
Abstract
This paper investigates the performance of optimised interest rate rules when there is uncertainty about a key determinant of the monetary transmission mechanism, namely the degree of persistence characterising the inflation process. The paper focuses on the euro area and utilises two variants of an estimated small-scale macroeconomic model featuring distinct types of staggered contracts specifications which induce quite different degrees of inflation persistence. The paper shows that a cautious monetary policy-maker is welladvised to design and implement interest rate policies under the assumption that inflation persistence is high when uncertainty about the prevailing degree of inflation persistence is pervasive. [Günter Coenen]
Author: Coenen, Günter
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 290
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyAnti-inflation policyRobust methodTheoryMonetary transmissionInterest rate policy
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: The credibility of the monetary policy "free lunch"
Abstract
Price level targeting has been proposed as an alternative to in?ation targeting that may confer bene?ts if a central bank sets policy under discretion, even if society's loss function is speci?ed in terms of in?ation (instead of price level) volatility. This paper demonstrates the sensitivity of this argument. If even a small portion of agents use a rule-of-thumb to form in?ation expectations, or does not fully understand the nature of the target, price level targeting may in fact impose costs on society rather than bene?ts. While rational expectations and perfect credibility are generally bene?cial with either a price level or an in?ation target, an in?ation target is more robust to alternative assumptions. These results suggest that caution should be exercised in considering a price level target as the basis for monetary policy, unless society has preferences speci?ed in terms of price level, rather than in?ation, volatility. [James Yetman]
Author: Yetman, James
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 284
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyCredibilityInflation targetingPrice stabilityRational expectationsTheoryCentral Bank
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Title: Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy
Abstract
This paper offers an alternative explanation for the behavior of postwar US inflation by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time-inconsistency due to Cukierman (2002). In the presence of asymmetric preferences, the monetary authorities end up generating a systematic inflation bias through the private sector expectations of a larger policy response in recessions than in booms. Reduced-form estimates of US monetary policy rules indicate that while the inflation target declines from the pre- to the post-Volcker regime, the average inflation bias, which is about one percent before 1979, tends to disappear over the last two decades. This result can be rationalized in terms of the preference on output stabilization, which is found to be large and asymmetric in the former but not in the latter period. [Paolo Surico]
Author: Surico, Paolo
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 291
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyInflation targetingAnti-inflation policyTheory of preferencesUnited StatesTime consistency
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthCurrency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: USA
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Title: Inflation targets and the liquidity trap
Abstract
The presence of a lower bound of zero on nominal interest rates has important implications for the conduct of optimal monetary policy. Standard rational expectations models can have alternative steady states as well as non-unique laws of motion, i.e. there can be possible sunspot equilibria. Such complications can be ruled out under a number of alternative assumptions. In this paper we analyse the relevance of the zero lower bound for alternative levels of inßation in a stan- dard Neo-Keynesian model, where stability is assured by assuming that Þscal policy turns expansionary at the zero lower bound. [Matt Klaeffling ; Victor Lopez Perez]
Author: Klaeffling, Matt | Perez, Victor Lopez
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 272
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Fiscal PolicyMonetary PolicyInflation targetingTheory
Subject: Taxation. Fiscal policyCurrency. Monetary policy
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Title: Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets
Title (other): the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations
Abstract
Announcing a quantitative objective for price developments has become a common practice in modern monetary policy making. While the specific features of such announced objectives vary across countries, a common rationale for this is to help anchoring inflation expectations. We use survey data on long-term inflation expectations in 15 industrial countries since the early nineties to investigate how well anchored are inflation expectations. We find that in all countries except Japan long-term inflation expectations are well anchored and, generally, increasingly so over the past decade. When comparing this evidence across types of announcements of the inflation objectives, we find that the specific features of announcements have no visible effect on the performance at anchoring inflation expectations. In particular, there does not seem to be evidence that the announcement of a quantitative objective in the form of a point or of a range for admissible inflation rates makes any appreciable difference. [Efrem Castelnuovo, Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari and Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela]
Author: Castelnuovo, Efrem | Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio | Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 273
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesMonetary PolicyInflation targetingInflation expectationsPrice stability
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
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Title: Zero lower bound
Title (other): is it a problem in the euro area?
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a quantitative study of the implications of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates which was undertaken in the context of the review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in Spring 2003. Focusing on the euro area, the paper provides an assessment of the likelihood that the short-term nominal interest rate may be constrained at zero and quantifies how the zero-bound constraint may affect the dynamic behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as the shortterm nominal interest rate, annual inflation and output. [Günter Coenen]
Author: Coenen, Günter
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 269
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: European Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyLiquidity preferenceBond MarketInterest Rate
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Title: The output composition puzzle
Title (other): a difference in the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area and U.S
Abstract
We revisit recent evidence on how monetary policy affects output and prices in the U.S. and in the euro area. The response patterns to a shift in monetary policy are similar in most respects, but differ noticeably as to the composition of output changes. In the euro area investment is the predominant driver of output changes, while in the U.S. consumption shifts are significantly more important. We dub this difference the output composition puzzle and explore its implications and several potential explanations for it. While the evidence seems to point at differences in consumption responses, rather than investment, as the proximate cause for this fact, the source of the consumption difference remains a puzzle. [Ignazio Angeloni, Anil K. Kashyap, Benoît Mojon and Daniele Terlizzese]
Author: Angeloni, Ignazio | Kashyap, Anil K. | Mojon, Benoît | Terlizzese, Daniele
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 268
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesMonetary PolicyAggregate ProductionAggregate consumptionMonetary transmissionUnited States
Countries Scheme: USA
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Title: Indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria in sequential financial markets
Abstract
We provide a general characterization of the structure of rational expectations equilibria of any degree of revelation for pure exchange, sequential economies, with deffinitely many states of private information, an incomplete financial market and nominal assets. We estimate the dimension of the rational expectations equilibria for any degree of revelation. Then, we show how a central bank, by deciding on the money supply, may affect the revelation of information at equilibrium. [Paola Donati]
Author: Donati, Paola
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 262
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Asymmetric informationFinancial marketMonetary PolicyRational expectationsTheoryIncomplete marketCentral Bank
Subject: Currency. Monetary policyInvestment returns. Financial market. Interest rates
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Title: Macroeconomic modelling of monetary policy
Abstract
This paper proposes a new paradigm for the analysis of monetary policy. From an econometric point of view this new approach is just as easy to implement as reduced form analysis, but is robust to the Lucas critique. It requires no explicit prior theory and yet it encompasses all standard DSGE models. After introducing this new paradigm I study US monetary policy and look at the nature and the effect of monetary policy, discuss the transmission mechanism and the policy rule implied by the data, and perform counterfactual policy analysis. [Matt Klaeffling]
Author: Klaeffling, Matt
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 257
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyRational expectationsMonetary transmissionUnited StatesVAR modelTime series analysisEconometric Model
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: USA
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Title: Persistence, the transmission mechanism and robust monetary policy
Abstract
In this paper we first explore the impact of nominal and real persistence on the transmission process of various shocks in an estimated DSGE model of euro area. We then analyse its impact on optimal monetary policy and investigate the performance of various monetary policies when the policy maker is uncertain about the degree of nominal and real persistence. [Ignazio Angeloni ; Günter Coenen ; Frank Smets]
Author: Angeloni, Ignazio | Coenen, Günter | Smets, Frank
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 250
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyTheoryMonetary transmission
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Exchange rates and fundamentals
Abstract
Standard economic models hold that exchange rates are influenced by fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help predict changes in floating exchange rates - that is, exchange rates follow a random walk. We show that the data do exhibit a related link suggested by standard models - that the exchange rate helps predict fundamentals. We also show analytically that in a rational expectations present value model, an asset price manifests near random walk behavior if fundamentals are I(1) and the factor for discounting future fundamentals is near one. We suggest that this may apply to exchange rates. [Charles Engel ; Kenneth David West]
Author: Engel, Charles | West, Kenneth David
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 248
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: G-7 countriesMoney supplyMonetary PolicyAggregate ProductionInflation rateMacroeconomic effectRandom walkRational expectations
TheoryExchange rateInterest Rate
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: Global Resources
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Title: How does the ECB allot liquidity in its weekly main refinancing operations?
Title (other): A look at the empirical evidence
Abstract
This paper provides a simple weekly model of the regular supply of liquidity in the euro area, with a view to understanding the functioning of the euro area money market. The main result of the analysis is that liquidity has normally been provided by the ECB in a neutral and smooth manner, but also that there has been some attempt, albeit very limited, to correct deviations of the overnight rate from the main refinancing rate. Moreover the paper finds that liquidity has affected the overnight interest rate to a significant extend only after the last main refinancing operation of the maintenance period, when it is not possible for the ECB to adjust liquidity imbalances except by making recourse to fine-tuning operations. [Steen Ejerskov, Clara Martin Moss and Livio Stracca]
Author: Ejerskov, Steen | Moss, Clara Martin | Stracca, Livio
Series Title: The European Central Bank - Working papers review
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Bank liquidityEU countriesMonetary PolicyLiquidity effectMartingaleCentral BankEUEuropean Central Bank
monetary policyliquidity
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Monetary policy transmission in the euro area
Title (other): any changes after EMU?
Abstract
We examine the euro area monetary policy transmission process using post-1999 data, with two main questions in mind: has it changed after - and because of - EMU and, if so, is it becoming homogeneous across countries. Given the data limitations, we concentrate on three blocks of transmission: the banking, interest-rate and asset-market channels. We find evidence that the transmission through banks has become more potent and homogeneous across countries because of EMU. On the financial-market channels, our evidence is somewhat weaker but suggestive. The interest-rate channel appears to have changed even before EMU, and to now affect national economies in a broadly similar way. The asset-market channel (proxied by the stock-market effects of monetary policy) also seems to work rather homogeneously across national markets (no comparison with pre-EMU is available here). A positive answer to both questions raised above represents, in our view, the best working hypothesis under current knowledge. [Ignazio Angeloni and Michael Ehrmann]
Author: Angeloni, Ignazio | Ehrmann, Michael
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 240
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuroEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyMonetary transmission
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Swiss monetary policy targeting 1974 - 1996
Title (other): the role of internal policy analysis
Abstract
After the switch to a floating exchange rate in 1973, the Swiss National Bank at first adopted annual monetary targets and in the 1990s shifted to a medium-term targeting strategy. In this paper I review the SNB's internal policy analysis, an aspect of Swiss monetary targeting that has received little attention in the existing literature. I show that money played a key role in setting monetary policy and in communicating the SNB's decisions to the public. Due to the adoption of monetary targets, the SNB was able to reduce the inflation trend to low levels. However, it was less successful in preserving price stability during business-cycle expansions because the monetary targets did not call for a sufficiently preemptive policy stance. At the end of 1999, the SNB abandoned monetary targeting in favour of an approach based on inflation forecasts. [Georg Rich]
Author: Rich, Georg
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 236
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyMonetary targetPolicy rulesSwitzerland
Countries Scheme: Switzerland. General Resources
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Title: The natural real rate of interest in the euro area
Abstract
In this paper, we discuss the consequences of taking into account the variations of the natural real interest rate (r t *) in simple monetary policy rules. We also provide one possible model-based analysis of the level of r t * that has prevailed in the euro area since the early 1970s, and present the implied "real rate gap" as a possible additional indicator to assess the stance of monetary policy. [Nicola Giammarioli and Natacha Valla]
Author: Giammarioli, Nicola | Valla, Natacha
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 233
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyReal interest rate
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Title: Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules
Title (other): is interest rate smoothing important?
Abstract
In this paper we estimate simple Taylor rules paying particular attention to interest rate smoothing. Following English, Nelson, and Sack (2002), we employ a model in first differences to gain some insights into the presence and signifcance of the degree of partial adjustment as opposed to a serially correlated policy shock. Moreover, we estimate a nested model to take into account both interest rate smoothing and serially correlated deviations from various Taylor rates prescriptions. Our findings suggest that the lagged interest rate enters the Taylor rule in its own right, and may very well coexist with (usually omitted) variables that relate to asymmetric preferences on the output gap, or financial market indicators. Therefore, while we cannot exclude that serially correlated policy shocks may play a role in describing the federal funds rate path, our results significantly support the importance of the lagged interest rate in Taylor-type models. [Efrem Castelnuovo]
Author: Castelnuovo, Efrem
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 232
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyTaylor ruleUnited StatesCentral BankInterest Rate
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: USA
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