Suche nach Schlagworten '11495-6'

5 entries found on 1 pages. starting on record 1 ending on 5

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Title: Consumer inflation expectations in Poland
Abstract
Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the transmission of monetary policy impulses and their impact on the real and nominal sectors of the economy bear a close relationship to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be quantified with the use of probability or regression methods. This paper presents the results of two versions of the probability method, implemented in order to estimate numerical measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations, based on the monthly Ipsos-Demoskop survey. In addition, the unbiasedness and macroeconomic efficiency of Polish consumer inflation expectations are tested, as are the way in which these are formed. The pattern of responses to the survey question and quantified measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations are also compared with the respective findings for the euro area. [Tomasz £yziak]
Author: £yziak, Tomasz
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 287
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Monetary PolicyInflation expectationsPolandConsumersCentral Bankmonetary policyinflationPoland
consumercentral bank
Subject: Economic conditionsCurrency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: Poland
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Downward nominal wage rigidity and the long-run Philips Curve
Title (other): simulation-based evidence for the euro area
Abstract
This paper summarises the results of a quantitative study of the possible impact of downward nominal wage rigidity on the determination of inflation and output in the euro area and the existence of a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve. The study was undertaken in the context of the review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in Spring 2003 and complements an investigation of the consequences of the zerointerest- rate bound for monetary policy-making in the euro area, the results of which are summarised in Coenen (2003). [Günter Coenen]
Author: Coenen, Günter
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 270
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionAggregate ProductionInflation expectationsWage rigidityPhillips curveTheory
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets
Title (other): the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations
Abstract
Announcing a quantitative objective for price developments has become a common practice in modern monetary policy making. While the specific features of such announced objectives vary across countries, a common rationale for this is to help anchoring inflation expectations. We use survey data on long-term inflation expectations in 15 industrial countries since the early nineties to investigate how well anchored are inflation expectations. We find that in all countries except Japan long-term inflation expectations are well anchored and, generally, increasingly so over the past decade. When comparing this evidence across types of announcements of the inflation objectives, we find that the specific features of announcements have no visible effect on the performance at anchoring inflation expectations. In particular, there does not seem to be evidence that the announcement of a quantitative objective in the form of a point or of a range for admissible inflation rates makes any appreciable difference. [Efrem Castelnuovo, Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari and Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela]
Author: Castelnuovo, Efrem | Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio | Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 273
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesMonetary PolicyInflation targetingInflation expectationsPrice stability
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Bond market inflation expectations and longer-term trends in broad monetary growth and inflation in industrial
countries, 1880 - 2001
Abstract
'Bond Market Inflation Expectation and Longer-term Trends in Broad Monetary Growth and Inflation in Industrial Countries, 1880-2001' by William G. Dewald, Professor of Economics Emeritus, Ohio State University and Former Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Annual data for thirteen countries revealed three long up trends and down trends in inflation that were matched by growth rates in M2 and nominal GDP but not real GDP in each country and cross-country averages. Inflationary expectations as estimated by bond rates less real growth trends indicated little inflation expectation until the 1960s. Central banks had credibility to keep inflation low even during wartime. It was lost as inflation rose in the 1970s and regained only as inflation fell subsequently. Although relationships with annual data were not as reliable as with ten-year averages, annual inflation was significantly related to annual M2 growth and inflationary expectations which should not be ignored in central bank decision making. [William G. Dewald]
Author: Dewald, William G.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 253
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Money stockIndustrialized countriesInflation expectationsBond MarketComparisonEconomic Growth
Subject: Economic and growth policiesEconomic development. Economic growthMoney. Financing
Countries Scheme: Global Resources
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
Title: Modelling inflation in the euro area
Abstract
The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry and Mestre (2001) - and estimated versions of the (single equation) P* model and a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. The evidence from these comparisons does not invite decisive conclusions. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead forecasts. [Eilev S. Jansen]
Author: Jansen, Eilev S.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 322
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Labour costsInflation expectationsForecastTheoryImperfect competition
Subject: Economic development. Economic growthEmployment and unemployment
Online Ressource: vorübergehend nicht erreichbar!
Bitte beachten Sie die urheberrechtlichen Bedingungen der Dokumentenbenutzung / Please observe the copyright when accessing the document | Quelle / Source: Europäische Zentralbank (http://www.ecb.int)
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