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1094 entries found on 55 pages. starting on record 1 ending on 20

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Title: Government deficits, wealth effects and the price level in an optimizing model
Abstract
This paper investigates the in inflationary effects of fscal policy in an optimizing general equilibrium monetary model with capital accumulation, exible prices and wealth effects. The model is calibrated to Euro Area quarterly data. Simulation results show that government defcits, high debt level and slow fiscal adjustment adversely affect price stability in the presence of an independent monetary authority adopting a monetary targeting regime. The mechanism through which fiscal policy affects the dynamics of the price level presents monetarist properties, since the price level is determined in the monetary market. The effects produced by fiscal expansions on price dynamics are due to the behavior of consumers, facing a positive probability of death and sharing the burden of fiscal adjustment with future generations. Fiscal variables are shown to influence the consumption plan of individuals and the demand for real money balances, thus affecting the equilibrium conditions in the money market where the price level is determined. [Barbara Annicchiarico]
Author: Annicchiarico, Barbara
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 285
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesFiscal PolicyPrice stabilityTheoryWealth effectPublic Debt
Subject: Economic and growth policiesTaxation. Fiscal policy
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Title: Country and sector-specific spillover effects in the euro area, the United States and Japan
Abstract
Within a two-step GARCH framework we explore the linkages between equity returns of ten sectors in the euro area, the United States and Japan, respectively. Our estimation framework allows a distinction to be made between spillover effects originating from one of the three currency areas and intrasectoral spillover effects. We use daily data from the period between January 1986 and October 2002. We find that, during the late 1990s, the worldwide importance of European equity markets has increased considerably. More precisely, price innovations in European equities (both aggregate returns and sector returns) have doubled or tripled their impact on other stock markets. At the same time, there is evidence that sectors have become more heterogeneous in each of the three currency areas, ie the response to aggregate shocks has increasingly varied across sectors. Spillover effects of aggregate market innovations have generally outweighed intra-sectoral spillover effects. Overall, the process towards higher integration has been primarily a phenomenon of equity markets in the euro area and the United States. [Bernd Kaltenhaeuser]
Author: Kaltenhaeuser, Bernd
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 286
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Stock MarketEU countriesEuroFinancial marketJapanMarket integrationSpillover effectUnited States
Subject: Currency. Monetary policyInternational investments. Capital movements
Countries Scheme: USAJapan
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Title: Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design
Abstract
This paper investigates the performance of optimised interest rate rules when there is uncertainty about a key determinant of the monetary transmission mechanism, namely the degree of persistence characterising the inflation process. The paper focuses on the euro area and utilises two variants of an estimated small-scale macroeconomic model featuring distinct types of staggered contracts specifications which induce quite different degrees of inflation persistence. The paper shows that a cautious monetary policy-maker is welladvised to design and implement interest rate policies under the assumption that inflation persistence is high when uncertainty about the prevailing degree of inflation persistence is pervasive. [Günter Coenen]
Author: Coenen, Günter
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 290
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyAnti-inflation policyRobust methodTheoryMonetary transmissionInterest rate policy
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?
Title (other): Background study for the evaluation of the ECB's monetary policy strategy
Abstract
This paper re-examines two data issues concerning euro area money demand: aggregation of national data and measurement of the own rate.The main purpose is to study if euro area money demand is subject to parameter non-constancies using formal tests rather than informal diagnostics. As a complement to inference based on asymptotics we perform small-scale bootstraps.The empirical evidence supports the existence of a stable long-run relationship between money and output and that the cointegration space is constant over time.H owever, the interest rate semi-elasticities of money demand are imprecisely estimated.Cond itional on the cointegration relations the remaining parameters of the system appear to be constant.W e also examine the relevance of stock prices for money demand and find that our measure does not matter for the long-run relations, but may be useful in forecasting exercises.F inally, the conclusions are robust for the aggregation method and the choice of sample. [Annick Bruggeman ; Paola Donati ; Anders Warne]
Author: Bruggeman, Annick | Donati, Paola | Warne, Anders
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 255
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: AggregationBootstrap methodEU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMoney stockDemand for money
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Forecasting real GDP
Title (other): what role for narrow money?
Abstract
This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting properties for real GDP than yield spreads. This property persists when one controls for a number of other influences. We also evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of different classes of VAR models comprising real M1, GDP and other indicators, using as benchmark a simple univariate model. As a result, only VARs in first differences are able to outperform the benchmark. [Claus Brand ; Hans-Eggert Reimers ; Franz Seitz]
Author: Brand, Claus | Reimers, Hans-Eggert | Seitz, Franz
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 254
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesMoney stockBusiness CycleForecasting techniqueUnited StatesVAR modelNational Accounts
Subject: Economic and growth policies
Countries Scheme: USA
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Title: US, Japan and the euro area
Title (other): comparing business-cycle features
Abstract
There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common business cycle, asymmetries in the national cycles and, using a number of algorithms, date business-cycle turning points. Despite a high degree of trade and financial linkages, the cyclical features of US, Japan and the euro area appear quite distinct. Documenting and comparing such international business-cycle features can aid forecasting, model selection and policy analysis etc. [Peter McAdam]
Author: McAdam, Peter
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 283
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesJapanBusiness CycleBusiness cycle transmissionUnited StatesComparison
Countries Scheme: USAJapan
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Title: Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data
Abstract
The first official data releases of quarterly real GDP for the euro area are published about eight weeks after the end of the reference quarters. Meanwhile, ongoing economic developments must be assessed from various, more readily available, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of univariate forecasting equations to what extent monthly indicators provide useful information for predicting euro area real GDP growth over the current and the next quarter. In particular, we investigate the performance of the equations under the case that the monthly indicators are only partially available within the quarter. For this purpose, we use time series models to forecast the missing observations of monthly indicators. We then examine GDP forecasts under different amounts of monthly information. We find that already a limited amount of monthly information improves the predictions for current-quarter GDP growth to a considerable extent, compared with ARIMA forecasts. Equations based on either quantitative activity indicators or the CEPR EuroCOIN composite indicator perform best. [Gerhard Rünstler ; Franck Sédillot]
Author: Rünstler, Gerhard | Sédillot, Franck
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 276
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: ARMA modelEU countriesStatistical dataNational AccountsEconomic forecast
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Title: Relevant economic issues concerning the optimal rate of inflation
Abstract
This paper reviews the key economic issues concerning the welfare costs of inflation and deflation, with a view to shedding light on the desirable properties of the inflation process. Our review of the evidence on the overall costs of inflation and deflation indicates that such costs could be even higher than previously thought, also at moderate rates of inflation, thereby strengthening the case for price stability. We also review two of the arguments usually invoked for maintaining a small positive rate of inflation: the potential alleviation of poor economic performance arising from downward nominal rigidities and the role of sustained inflation differentials within the euro area. Recent evidence suggests that the macroeconomic relevance of these two factors is minor, even when considered in combination, although this assessment remains surrounded by high uncertainty. [Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela ; Gonzalo Camba-Mendez ; Juan Angel Garcia]
Author: Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego | Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo | Angel Garcia, Juan
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 278
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionOptimal rate of inflationTheoryEconomic loss
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Title: Downward nominal wage rigidity and the long-run Philips Curve
Title (other): simulation-based evidence for the euro area
Abstract
This paper summarises the results of a quantitative study of the possible impact of downward nominal wage rigidity on the determination of inflation and output in the euro area and the existence of a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve. The study was undertaken in the context of the review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in Spring 2003 and complements an investigation of the consequences of the zerointerest- rate bound for monetary policy-making in the euro area, the results of which are summarised in Coenen (2003). [Günter Coenen]
Author: Coenen, Günter
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 270
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionAggregate ProductionInflation expectationsWage rigidityPhillips curveTheory
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets
Title (other): the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations
Abstract
Announcing a quantitative objective for price developments has become a common practice in modern monetary policy making. While the specific features of such announced objectives vary across countries, a common rationale for this is to help anchoring inflation expectations. We use survey data on long-term inflation expectations in 15 industrial countries since the early nineties to investigate how well anchored are inflation expectations. We find that in all countries except Japan long-term inflation expectations are well anchored and, generally, increasingly so over the past decade. When comparing this evidence across types of announcements of the inflation objectives, we find that the specific features of announcements have no visible effect on the performance at anchoring inflation expectations. In particular, there does not seem to be evidence that the announcement of a quantitative objective in the form of a point or of a range for admissible inflation rates makes any appreciable difference. [Efrem Castelnuovo, Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari and Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela]
Author: Castelnuovo, Efrem | Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio | Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 273
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesMonetary PolicyInflation targetingInflation expectationsPrice stability
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
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Title: The output composition puzzle
Title (other): a difference in the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area and U.S
Abstract
We revisit recent evidence on how monetary policy affects output and prices in the U.S. and in the euro area. The response patterns to a shift in monetary policy are similar in most respects, but differ noticeably as to the composition of output changes. In the euro area investment is the predominant driver of output changes, while in the U.S. consumption shifts are significantly more important. We dub this difference the output composition puzzle and explore its implications and several potential explanations for it. While the evidence seems to point at differences in consumption responses, rather than investment, as the proximate cause for this fact, the source of the consumption difference remains a puzzle. [Ignazio Angeloni, Anil K. Kashyap, Benoît Mojon and Daniele Terlizzese]
Author: Angeloni, Ignazio | Kashyap, Anil K. | Mojon, Benoît | Terlizzese, Daniele
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 268
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesMonetary PolicyAggregate ProductionAggregate consumptionMonetary transmissionUnited States
Countries Scheme: USA
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Title: Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries
Abstract
This paper presents evidence for structural differences in economic growth dynamics between the current EU and the central- and eastern European accession countries. Two important results emerge from the analysis. First, accession countries have posted higher average growth and wider output fluctuations than the euro area and other EU countries. Second, a set of different methodologies suggests that business cycles of accession countries have been less synchronised with the euro area than those of the United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark. It is less clear whether accession countries are also less synchronised than the euro area "peripherals" (Greece, Portugal and Ireland). Moreover, synchrony differed across countries. Some accession economies, particularly Hungary, Poland and Slovenia, showed a close alignment with euro area fluctuations. Others, in particular the Czech Republic and Slovakia, revealed remarkable asymmetries, which are a reminder that sizeable idiosyncratic shocks remain a risk. [Ralph Süppel]
Author: Süppel, Ralph
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 267
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU enlargementEU countriesOptimum currency areaEastern EuropeComparisonExchange rateEconomic Growth
Subject: European Community external relationsCurrency. Monetary policy
Countries Scheme: Eastern Europe. General Resources
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Title: Finance and growth in the EU
Title (other): new evidence from the liberalisation and harmonisation of the banking industry
Abstract
This paper analyses the link between finance and growth by studying the effect that the process of financial deregulation and harmonisation of banking laws at the EU level has brought about on growth over the last 40 years. Our main findings point to the existence of a positive long-run growth impact from the liberalisation of capital controls and the harmonisation of banking legislation. Both policy changes affect growth even after controlling for other pro-growth policies implemented around the same time and they are robust to business cycle effects that could spuriously drive the relation. The analysis of the main channels through which our policy changes may have affected growth indicates that the harmonisation process has impacted growth through the increase in the level and efficiency of financial intermediation and the liberalisation of capital controls has mainly affected growth through improvements in the degree of efficiency in financial intermediation. [Diego Romero De Ávila]
Author: De Ávila, Diego Romero
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 266
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: DeregulationSingle European marketEU countriesFinancial marketFinancial liberalizationEconomic Growth
Subject: Foreign trade. Trade relationsInternational investments. Capital movements
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Title: New Keynesian Phillips Curves
Title (other): a reassessment using euro-area data
Abstract
Using euro-area data, we re-examine the empirical success of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs). The nature of our re-evaluation relies on the actual empirical underpinnings of such estimates: we find existing estimates un-robust and - given that key parameters are generally calibrated rather than estimated - potentially at odds with the data. We re-estimate with a wellspecified optimizing supply-side (which attempts to treat non-stationarity in factor income shares and mark-ups) and this allows us to derive estimates of technology parameters and marginal costs. Our resulting estimates of the euro-area NKPCs are robust, provide reasonable estimates for fixed-price durations and discount rates and embody plausible dynamic properties. Our method for identifying and estimating New Keynesian Phillips curves has general applicability to a wide set of countries and might also be used in identifying sectoral NKPCs. [Peter McAdam ; Alpo Willman]
Author: McAdam, Peter | Willman, Alpo
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 265
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionInflation ratePhillips curve
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
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Title: A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area
Abstract
This monthly monetary model for the euro area is gradually constructed from its two constituting components: a money demand and a loan demand model which both include the relation between the respective retail bank rates and the short-term market interest rate. Eventually, the encompassing monetary model allows for interactions between money and loans induced by the intermediation role of the banking sector. Estimating the encompassing model over the period January 1981 - September 2001 results in a money demand equation which corroborates the existing evidence. To stabilise the loan demand equation, however, an extra variable capturing the mergers and acquisitions wave of 1999-2000 is needed. Furthermore, the model rejects the frequently used assumption of complete separability in the pricing of loans and deposits and provides some evidence for the existence of a bank lending channel. Finally, the estimation of the Structural-VECM highlights very rich dynamics in the system. [Annick Bruggeman ; Marie Donnay]
Author: Bruggeman, Annick | Donnay, Marie
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 264
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionFinancial intermediationDemand for moneyCointegrationCredit theory
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies?
Title (other): A literature review
Abstract
Based on a literature review, this paper investigates the reasons why broad money demand has usually been found to be more stable in the euro area than in other large economies. The paper concludes that there are three main explanations for this fact. First, in some countries outside the euro area the sources of instabilities in money demand were country-specific. Second, financial innovation appears to have had a weaker impact on money demand in the euro area than in other economies. A third explanation is that there are gains in terms of stability in aggregating the money demand of the individual euro area countries. [Alessandro Calza ; João Sousa]
Author: Calza, Alessandro | Sousa, João
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 261
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionFinancial innovationMoney stockDemand for moneyWorld
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Title: Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the euro area, when countries are heterogeneous
Abstract
We derive fundamental new theory for measuring monetary service flows aggregated over countries within the European Monetary Union (EMU). We develop three increasingly restrictive approaches: (1) the heterogeneous agents approach, (2) the multilateral representative agent approach, and (3) the unilateral representative agent approach. Our heterogeneous agents approach contains our multilateral representative agent approach as a special case. In our most general approach, we assume the existence of a representative consumer within each country to aggregate within each country. We use a stochastic approach to aggregation across countries over the heterogeneous representative agents, and we derive the resulting formulas for stochastic aggregation over countries. Our theory permits monitoring the effects of policy at the aggregate level over the euro area, while also monitoring the distribution effects of policy among the countries of the euro area. Our approach requires the simultaneous use of two inflation indexes over the euro area. [William A. Barnett]
Author: Barnett, William A.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 260
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: AggregationEU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMoney stockMonetary TheoryTheory
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Implicit tax co-ordination under repeated policy interactions
Abstract
In the context of a stylised game theoretical framework of capital tax competition, we show that when repeated policy interactions are associated to a systematic punishment of the deviating policymaker, a co-ordinated outcome can be the solution to the non co-operative tax game. This result suggests that explicit forms of policy coordination, such as a centralised tax authority, could in fact be largely unnecessary. [Marco Catenaro ; Jean-Pierre Vidal]
Author: Catenaro, Marco | Vidal, Jean-Pierre
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 259
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEU tax lawCapital income taxNoncooperative gameTax competitionTheory
Subject: Taxation. Fiscal policy
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Title: Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area
Abstract
Traditional Taylor rules, which are estimated using a level specification linking the short-term interest rate to inflation and the output gap, are unstable when estimated on euro area data and forecast poorly out of sample. We present an alternative reaction function which takes the non-stationarity of the data into account. The estimated interest rate rule is stable and forecasts well. In contrast to the traditional Taylor rule, we find a ignificant role for the long rate, which we argue reflects shifts in the public's perception of the long-run inflation objective. [Petra Gerlach-Kristen]
Author: Gerlach-Kristen, Petra
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 258
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionCointegrationTaylor ruleCentral BankTerm structure of interest rates
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Consumption, habit persistence, imperfect information and the lifetime budget constraint
Abstract
Based on the households' utility maximisation, a closed form approximation of the consumption function is derived and the deep parameters of the consumption function are estimated using aggregate euro area data. The novel element in our approach is the parameterisation of the information content regarding future income changes. In addition to the information regarding time series properties of the historical development of labour income, consumers have also period-specific information on future income realisations. Estimation results support the hypothesis that, although front-loaded, consumers have a lot of information on future income changes, but that also lagged consumption, through habit formation, plays an important role. [Alpo Willman]
Author: Willman, Alpo
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 251
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesSelf-interestIncomeAggregate consumption functionLife cycleMicroeconomic consumption functionWealth effect
Subject: Economic conditions. Economic structure
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