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53 entries found on 3 pages. starting on record 1 ending on 20

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Title: Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design
Abstract
This paper investigates the performance of optimised interest rate rules when there is uncertainty about a key determinant of the monetary transmission mechanism, namely the degree of persistence characterising the inflation process. The paper focuses on the euro area and utilises two variants of an estimated small-scale macroeconomic model featuring distinct types of staggered contracts specifications which induce quite different degrees of inflation persistence. The paper shows that a cautious monetary policy-maker is welladvised to design and implement interest rate policies under the assumption that inflation persistence is high when uncertainty about the prevailing degree of inflation persistence is pervasive. [Günter Coenen]
Author: Coenen, Günter
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 290
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyAnti-inflation policyRobust methodTheoryMonetary transmissionInterest rate policy
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?
Title (other): Background study for the evaluation of the ECB's monetary policy strategy
Abstract
This paper re-examines two data issues concerning euro area money demand: aggregation of national data and measurement of the own rate.The main purpose is to study if euro area money demand is subject to parameter non-constancies using formal tests rather than informal diagnostics. As a complement to inference based on asymptotics we perform small-scale bootstraps.The empirical evidence supports the existence of a stable long-run relationship between money and output and that the cointegration space is constant over time.H owever, the interest rate semi-elasticities of money demand are imprecisely estimated.Cond itional on the cointegration relations the remaining parameters of the system appear to be constant.W e also examine the relevance of stock prices for money demand and find that our measure does not matter for the long-run relations, but may be useful in forecasting exercises.F inally, the conclusions are robust for the aggregation method and the choice of sample. [Annick Bruggeman ; Paola Donati ; Anders Warne]
Author: Bruggeman, Annick | Donati, Paola | Warne, Anders
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 255
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: AggregationBootstrap methodEU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMoney stockDemand for money
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Relevant economic issues concerning the optimal rate of inflation
Abstract
This paper reviews the key economic issues concerning the welfare costs of inflation and deflation, with a view to shedding light on the desirable properties of the inflation process. Our review of the evidence on the overall costs of inflation and deflation indicates that such costs could be even higher than previously thought, also at moderate rates of inflation, thereby strengthening the case for price stability. We also review two of the arguments usually invoked for maintaining a small positive rate of inflation: the potential alleviation of poor economic performance arising from downward nominal rigidities and the role of sustained inflation differentials within the euro area. Recent evidence suggests that the macroeconomic relevance of these two factors is minor, even when considered in combination, although this assessment remains surrounded by high uncertainty. [Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela ; Gonzalo Camba-Mendez ; Juan Angel Garcia]
Author: Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego | Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo | Angel Garcia, Juan
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 278
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionOptimal rate of inflationTheoryEconomic loss
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Title: Downward nominal wage rigidity and the long-run Philips Curve
Title (other): simulation-based evidence for the euro area
Abstract
This paper summarises the results of a quantitative study of the possible impact of downward nominal wage rigidity on the determination of inflation and output in the euro area and the existence of a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve. The study was undertaken in the context of the review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in Spring 2003 and complements an investigation of the consequences of the zerointerest- rate bound for monetary policy-making in the euro area, the results of which are summarised in Coenen (2003). [Günter Coenen]
Author: Coenen, Günter
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 270
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionAggregate ProductionInflation expectationsWage rigidityPhillips curveTheory
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Zero lower bound
Title (other): is it a problem in the euro area?
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a quantitative study of the implications of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates which was undertaken in the context of the review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in Spring 2003. Focusing on the euro area, the paper provides an assessment of the likelihood that the short-term nominal interest rate may be constrained at zero and quantifies how the zero-bound constraint may affect the dynamic behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as the shortterm nominal interest rate, annual inflation and output. [Günter Coenen]
Author: Coenen, Günter
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 269
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: European Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyLiquidity preferenceBond MarketInterest Rate
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Title: New Keynesian Phillips Curves
Title (other): a reassessment using euro-area data
Abstract
Using euro-area data, we re-examine the empirical success of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs). The nature of our re-evaluation relies on the actual empirical underpinnings of such estimates: we find existing estimates un-robust and - given that key parameters are generally calibrated rather than estimated - potentially at odds with the data. We re-estimate with a wellspecified optimizing supply-side (which attempts to treat non-stationarity in factor income shares and mark-ups) and this allows us to derive estimates of technology parameters and marginal costs. Our resulting estimates of the euro-area NKPCs are robust, provide reasonable estimates for fixed-price durations and discount rates and embody plausible dynamic properties. Our method for identifying and estimating New Keynesian Phillips curves has general applicability to a wide set of countries and might also be used in identifying sectoral NKPCs. [Peter McAdam ; Alpo Willman]
Author: McAdam, Peter | Willman, Alpo
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 265
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionInflation ratePhillips curve
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
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Title: A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area
Abstract
This monthly monetary model for the euro area is gradually constructed from its two constituting components: a money demand and a loan demand model which both include the relation between the respective retail bank rates and the short-term market interest rate. Eventually, the encompassing monetary model allows for interactions between money and loans induced by the intermediation role of the banking sector. Estimating the encompassing model over the period January 1981 - September 2001 results in a money demand equation which corroborates the existing evidence. To stabilise the loan demand equation, however, an extra variable capturing the mergers and acquisitions wave of 1999-2000 is needed. Furthermore, the model rejects the frequently used assumption of complete separability in the pricing of loans and deposits and provides some evidence for the existence of a bank lending channel. Finally, the estimation of the Structural-VECM highlights very rich dynamics in the system. [Annick Bruggeman ; Marie Donnay]
Author: Bruggeman, Annick | Donnay, Marie
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 264
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionFinancial intermediationDemand for moneyCointegrationCredit theory
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies?
Title (other): A literature review
Abstract
Based on a literature review, this paper investigates the reasons why broad money demand has usually been found to be more stable in the euro area than in other large economies. The paper concludes that there are three main explanations for this fact. First, in some countries outside the euro area the sources of instabilities in money demand were country-specific. Second, financial innovation appears to have had a weaker impact on money demand in the euro area than in other economies. A third explanation is that there are gains in terms of stability in aggregating the money demand of the individual euro area countries. [Alessandro Calza ; João Sousa]
Author: Calza, Alessandro | Sousa, João
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 261
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionFinancial innovationMoney stockDemand for moneyWorld
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Title: Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the euro area, when countries are heterogeneous
Abstract
We derive fundamental new theory for measuring monetary service flows aggregated over countries within the European Monetary Union (EMU). We develop three increasingly restrictive approaches: (1) the heterogeneous agents approach, (2) the multilateral representative agent approach, and (3) the unilateral representative agent approach. Our heterogeneous agents approach contains our multilateral representative agent approach as a special case. In our most general approach, we assume the existence of a representative consumer within each country to aggregate within each country. We use a stochastic approach to aggregation across countries over the heterogeneous representative agents, and we derive the resulting formulas for stochastic aggregation over countries. Our theory permits monitoring the effects of policy at the aggregate level over the euro area, while also monitoring the distribution effects of policy among the countries of the euro area. Our approach requires the simultaneous use of two inflation indexes over the euro area. [William A. Barnett]
Author: Barnett, William A.
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 260
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: AggregationEU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMoney stockMonetary TheoryTheory
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area
Abstract
Traditional Taylor rules, which are estimated using a level specification linking the short-term interest rate to inflation and the output gap, are unstable when estimated on euro area data and forecast poorly out of sample. We present an alternative reaction function which takes the non-stationarity of the data into account. The estimated interest rate rule is stable and forecasts well. In contrast to the traditional Taylor rule, we find a ignificant role for the long rate, which we argue reflects shifts in the public's perception of the long-run inflation objective. [Petra Gerlach-Kristen]
Author: Gerlach-Kristen, Petra
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 258
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionCointegrationTaylor ruleCentral BankTerm structure of interest rates
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Persistence, the transmission mechanism and robust monetary policy
Abstract
In this paper we first explore the impact of nominal and real persistence on the transmission process of various shocks in an estimated DSGE model of euro area. We then analyse its impact on optimal monetary policy and investigate the performance of various monetary policies when the policy maker is uncertain about the degree of nominal and real persistence. [Ignazio Angeloni ; Günter Coenen ; Frank Smets]
Author: Angeloni, Ignazio | Coenen, Günter | Smets, Frank
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 250
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyTheoryMonetary transmission
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Forecasting euro area inflation
Title (other): does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?
Abstract
Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECB's monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of subindices of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as opposed to forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various model selection procedures are employed to select models for the aggregate and the disaggregate components. The results indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months ahead. [Kirstin Hubrich]
Author: Hubrich, Kirstin
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 247
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionInflationConsumer price indexPrice stabilityForecastTime series analysis
Subject: Economic and growth policiesCurrency. Monetary policy
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Title: Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation
Abstract
This paper investigates the pass-through of external shocks, i.e. oil price shocks, exchange rate shocks, and non-oil import price shocks to euro area in?ation at different stages of distribution (import prices, producer prices and consumer prices). The analysis is based on a VAR model that includes the distribution chain of pricing. According to our results the pass-through is largest and fastest for non-oil import price shocks, followed by exchange rate shocks and oil price shocks. The size and the speed of the pass-through of these shocks decline along the distribution chain. External shocks explain a large fraction of the variance in all price indices. They seem to have contributed largely to in?ation in the euro area since the start of the European Monetary Union. The results on the size and the speed of the passthrough in the euro area appeared to be robust over time and different identi?cation schemes. [Elke Hahn]
Author: Hahn, Elke
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 243
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: Trade priceEU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionExchange rate pass-throughShock
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: Monetary policy transmission in the euro area
Title (other): any changes after EMU?
Abstract
We examine the euro area monetary policy transmission process using post-1999 data, with two main questions in mind: has it changed after - and because of - EMU and, if so, is it becoming homogeneous across countries. Given the data limitations, we concentrate on three blocks of transmission: the banking, interest-rate and asset-market channels. We find evidence that the transmission through banks has become more potent and homogeneous across countries because of EMU. On the financial-market channels, our evidence is somewhat weaker but suggestive. The interest-rate channel appears to have changed even before EMU, and to now affect national economies in a broadly similar way. The asset-market channel (proxied by the stock-market effects of monetary policy) also seems to work rather homogeneously across national markets (no comparison with pre-EMU is available here). A positive answer to both questions raised above represents, in our view, the best working hypothesis under current knowledge. [Ignazio Angeloni and Michael Ehrmann]
Author: Angeloni, Ignazio | Ehrmann, Michael
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 240
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuroEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyMonetary transmission
Subject: Currency. Monetary policy
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Title: The natural real rate of interest in the euro area
Abstract
In this paper, we discuss the consequences of taking into account the variations of the natural real interest rate (r t *) in simple monetary policy rules. We also provide one possible model-based analysis of the level of r t * that has prevailed in the euro area since the early 1970s, and present the implied "real rate gap" as a possible additional indicator to assess the stance of monetary policy. [Nicola Giammarioli and Natacha Valla]
Author: Giammarioli, Nicola | Valla, Natacha
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 233
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyReal interest rate
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Title: An agenda for a growing Europe : making the EU economic system deliver
Title (other): Report of an independent high-level study group established on the initiative of the President of the European
Commission
Author (Corp. Body): Europäische Kommission / Group of Policy Advisers | European Commission / Group of Policy Advisers | GOPA
Year: 2003
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Berichte, Studien
Keyword: European IntegrationEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionEuropean integrationeconomic development (on national level)
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
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Title: Developing statistical indicators of the integration of the euro area banking system
Abstract
This paper discusses a wide range of indicators of the degree of integration of the euro area banking system. It is concerned with volume data, a less developed field of research compared with studies on prices/rates. We first set out a methodological framework, a mixture of elementary and more sophisticated statistics which can also be used in other contexts and datasets. We then apply this framework to unconsolidated balance sheet data of banks, aggregated at the national level. The paper offers three main empirical conclusions. First, within the euro area the gap between the cross-border banking activity in wholesale and retail markets is widening. Second, at the same time, with the exception of the home bias, even in retail markets there is increasing neutrality towards the location of the counterparty. Third, following a moderate decline in the wake of EMU, London is once again gaining market shares. [Michele Manna]
Author: Manna,Michele
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 300
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: BankSingle European marketEU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionFinancial market
Subject: Foreign trade. Trade relationsPublic finance. Banking. International monetary relationsCurrency. Monetary policy
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Title: Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads
Title (other): evidence from the EU
Abstract
In this paper we assess the importance given in capital markets to the credibility of the European fiscal framework. We evaluate to which extent relevant fiscal policy events taking place in the course of 2002 produced a reaction in the long-term bond segment of the capital markets. Firstly, we identify the fiscal policy events and qualitatively assess the views of capital market participants. Secondly, we estimate the impact of these fiscal events on the interest rate swap spreads, which is our measure for the risk premium. According to our results the reaction of swap spreads, where it turned out to be significant, has been mostly around five basis points or less. [António Afonso and Rolf Strauch]
Author: Afonso, António | Strauch, Rolf
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 303
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean stability pactEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionFinancial marketFiscal PolicyCredibilityInterest rate swap
Subject: Currency. Monetary policyInvestment returns. Financial market. Interest rates
Countries Scheme: Europe. General Resources
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Title: A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting
Abstract
In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core in- flation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the properties that an 'ideal' core inflation process should show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures. [Claudio Morana]
Author: Morana, Claudio
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 305
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: European Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyInflationCointegrationMarkov processTheory
Subject: European Communities. European UnionEconomic development. Economic growth
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Title: Monetary policy shocks in the euro area and global liquidity spillovers
Abstract
This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary shocks with a special focus on the effects of foreign money ("global liquidity") on the euro area. We estimate structural VAR models for the euro area and the global economy including a global liquidity aggregate. The impulse responses obtained show that a positive shock to extra-euro area liquidity leads to permanent increases in the euro area M3 aggregate and the price level, a temporary rise in real output and a temporary appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the euro. Moreover, we find that innovations in global liquidity play an important role in explaining price and output fluctuations in the euro area and in the global economy. [João Sousa and Andrea Zaghini]
Author: Sousa, João | Zaghini, Andrea
Series Title: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 309
Publisher: European Central Bank
Year: 2004
Language: en
Ressource: Einzelne Arbeitspapiere, Preprints
Keyword: EU countriesEuropean Economic and Monetary UnionMonetary PolicyShockTheoryMonetary transmissionForeign exchange reserves
Subject: Currency. Monetary policyInternational monetary system
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